Best Actress

Year

Actual Winner Probability Predicted Winner Probability

2008

Kate Winslet

0.70

Kate Winslet

0.70

2007

Marion Cotillard

0.22

Julie Christie

0.61

2006

Helen Mirren

0.97

Helen Mirren

0.97

2005

Reese Witherspoon

0.86

Reese Witherspoon

0.86

2004

Hilary Swank

0.83

Hilary Swank

0.83

2003

Charlize Theron

0.40

Charlize Theron

0.40

2002

Nicole Kidman

0.20

Renee Zellweger

0.39

2001

Halle Berry

0.08

Sissy Spacek

0.70

2000

Julia Roberts

0.73

Julia Roberts

0.73

1999

Hilary Swank

0.53

Hilary Swank

0.53

1998

Gwyneth Paltrow

0.60

Gwyneth Paltrow

0.60

1997

Helen Hunt

0.41

Helen Hunt

0.41

1996

Frances McDormand

0.54

Frances McDormand

0.54

1995

Susan Sarandon

0.29

Susan Sarandon

0.29

1994

Jessica Lange

0.51

Jessica Lange

0.51

1993

Holly Hunter

0.70

Holly Hunter

0.70

1992

Emma Thompson

0.81

Emma Thompson

0.81

1991

Jodie Foster

0.64

Jodie Foster

0.64

1990

Kathy Bates

0.23

Joanne Woodward

0.24

1989

Jessica Tandy

0.42

Jessica Tandy

0.42

1988

Jodie Foster

0.24

Melanie Griffith

0.32

1987

Cher

0.34

Cher

0.34

1986

Marlee Matlin

0.36

Sissy Spacek

0.38

1985

Geraldine Page

0.11

Meryl Streep

0.38

1984

Sally Field

0.38

Sally Field

0.38

1983

Shirley MacLaine

0.56

Shirley MacLaine

0.56

1982

Meryl Streep

0.60

Meryl Streep

0.60

1981

Katharine Hepburn

0.21

Meryl Streep

0.32

1980

Sissy Spacek

0.68

Sissy Spacek

0.68

1979

Sally Field

0.81

Sally Field

0.81

1978

Jane Fonda

0.53

Jane Fonda

0.53

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